I went to work on Monday, and decided I was better off
taking the rest of this week off. I’d originally planned to take Thursday and
Friday of this week off (and Monday after the race), but I think it’s better to
have most of this week off. It’s all about maximising my chances of success and
minimising my chances of things going wrong. I don’t know who might be ill on
the train or what germs might be floating around, and there’s still quite a bit
of it in the office. I can’t risk anything in the lead-up to what is probably
the biggest day of my life.
I’m still getting up at the normal time, there’s no point
lying in bed until 10 or 11am all week, and then not being tire in the evenings
and unable to get to sleep at 9pm in Bolton. Then the alarm will go off at 3am
before the race, and I’ll only have had 2 hours of bad sleep on which to race
an Ironman. I got up at 6:20am today (very early for a non-work day), I’ll go
to bed at 9:30pm. I’ll try to get up a bit earlier each morning this week, and
go to bed a bit earlier each evening, so that I am adjusted to very early
nights and early rises before I get to Bolton. So, I’ve got a bit of free time
this week as I’m not in work…
I’ve spent a bit (OK, a lot) of time thinking about what it
might take to qualify for the Kona Hawaii Ironman world championships at
Ironman UK. I’ve got experience of the event (this will be my 4th
trip to Bolton, and I’ve also done Ironman Wales twice). It’s impossible to
predict exactly, but I reckon there will be 5 qualifying slots in my age group.
To guarantee qualification, I’d like to finish in the top 4. Slots may roll
down, but there’s no guarantee of this.
I’d like to know immediately after the race if I’ve done it
or not, I don’t want a horrible night and morning going to the awards ceremony
to face the agony of a roll-down. Been there, done that, missed out, don’t want
to do it again… I finished 5th at Ironman Wales 2013, thought there
would be 5 slots, there were only 4, nothing rolled down…
To be really happy with the Ironman UK this year, I’d like
to be in the top 3 in my age group, which would mean a podium finish and a
prize. Finishing in such a position would put me around the top 20 overall. Assuming
the weather is reasonable, and assuming I actually get to the start line in
good shape (healthy, no injuries), and based on finishing times from previous
years, I think (although this could be completely wrong) that an overall
finishing time of around 9:40 will guarantee a Kona slot for me. Under 9:50 would
have a chance, under 10 hours would have a smaller chance, and anything over 10
hours would only be left with a tiny, tiny chance.
It's Tuesday today. Race day (Sunday) doesn't look great at the minute.
But it was the same last year - rain forecast, and it turned out nice...
Ironman UK always had a mass in-water start. So it was
always a proper “race” where everyone started at the same time. This year, it’s
a rolling land-based start. We will line up on land, with faster swimmers at
the front of the line. I imagine there might be a bit of argy-bargy when lining
up, and I’ll need to be ready in good time to get to the front of the line.
Then at 6am, the marshals will release a few athletes every second in a
continuous stream, until everyone is in the water. They plan to have everyone
swimming within 10-15 minutes, although I have my doubts about this. The pros
will get to start in the water, before the masses. I have no doubt that the
faster swimmers will be swimming over the top of the slower swimmers on the
second lap of the swim, which won’t be fun for anyone.
I would question the rolling start – the Bolton swim is fine
for a mass in-water start: there is space for a big, wide start, there is lots
of space, with a long, long swim of maybe 800m to the first turn buoy, by which
time the field has already strung out. I don’t really see any benefit of a
rolling land-based start. Plus, we won’t get a chance to warm up in the water
either, and a lot of people (myself included) like to take their time to get
into the water and get used to it. It’ll be a bit of a shock this year – boom,
straight into it. It is what it is though.
I expect to swim under an hour. In 2011 at Bolton I swam 57
minutes. In 2013 I did 55 minutes, but I heard the swim was a little short. In
2014 I swam 61 minutes with a body gone haywire after being in hospital for the
leg infections. Ideally I’d like to get through the swim and first transition
in under an hour, but I’d settle for a 57 minute swim.
And then the bike. You can’t make your day on the bike, but
you can very easily break it by going too hard. You only find out halfway
through the marathon, when you start losing 10 seconds per mile, then 20, then
40, then a minute, then two minutes. But how hard is too hard on the bike? What
feels fine/OK/not bad might still be too hard… With experience and learning, I
think I’m better placed to answer that question now. In previous Ironman bikes,
I’ve averaged just over 150bpm heart rate, with multiple spikes into the red
zone of over 170bpm. With hindsight, this is too high. Actually, with
hindsight, this is absolutely ludicrous.
No wonder my Ironman runs have been poor. And no wonder my
body didn’t process food and drink properly. It simply can’t, at such heart
rates, when the muscles’ demands for oxygen is such that blood is diverted from
the digestive system. This means you can continue to fuel your muscles, but you
can’t digest anything. That’s fine for an hour, or two or three or maybe even
four, but not for a full Ironman…
In 2013 I biked 5:30, following a 4:14 100-mile time trial a
couple of months previously. In 2014, I did the same 100-mile time trial in
identical conditions in 3:59. So I expected to bike something like 5:15 or 5:20
at the Ironman last year. In the end, I biked 5:39 shortly after being in
hospital with leg infections. I didn’t get to do the 100-mile time trial this
year, but I would like to think that I’m no less fit than I was last year. So
this means that a bike of 5:15-5:20 would be on the cards again (assuming
conditions are reasonable), with an average heart rate of 150+.
However, I want my average heart rate on the bike this year
to be 145 or lower, but I don’t know how much time this will cost me on the
bike. I’m hoping for around 5:30. But more than the time, I’m hoping to be able
to have the discipline to maintain a sensible heart rate, to watch people
overtake me on the bike (especially in the early stages), and be confident
enough to say “see you later, on the run…” I’m not going to spike anything.
Inevitably, going up some of the steep climbs on the course, you have to work a
bit harder. But I don’t intend to let my heart rate go over 160 at any point.
This may mean going slowly up the hills. But if anyone overtakes me, I’ll
(hopefully) see them later on the run.
I’ve also got a power meter which I’ll use to maintain a
constant output. No spiking, no surging, just a consistent ride between 210-240
watts, based on training numbers and functional threshold power testing. Nice
and steady. It will feel unnaturally easy for the first half of the bike, I’ll
basically be riding like a tourist, but it’s all about having the discipline to
hold back and hold back, trusting in the science and numbers, and knowing that
I will be setting myself up for a good run. You don’t necessarily “race” an
Ironman, you “pace” an Ironman. I was in 32-minute 10K shape earlier this year,
so it’s not like I’m a bad runner. It’s more like I’ve biked too hard in
previous Ironmans to run well off the bike.
Keeping everything nice and controlled on the bike will mean
I process food and drink better. I’ll make sure to drink water with any gel I
take, which will dilute it and make it less “pukey”. The same for any food I
take: I’ll wash it down with water. I’ll save the electrolyte and energy drinks
for times on the bike when I’m not eating. Sickly gels and food + sickly drinks
= sick! Rather than drink sips every 5 minutes, I’ll take slightly bigger
drinks, slightly less frequently. The stomach processes liquid better like this
(so I’ve read). Hopefully I’ll have no crashes, flat tyres, mechanical issues,
and all of the strategising, discipline and riding-with-blinkers-on-ignoring-everyone-else
will set me up for a good run.
It’s a very hilly, twisty, technical, stop-start course with
poor road surfaces. Any rain or wind will make it a bit dangerous and I’ll have
to ride with care, so the conditions will play a big part. A 5:30 bike would
mean an average speed of 20.4mph. A 5:25 bike would mean 20.7mph, and a 5:20
bike would mean 21mph. We’ll see. If it all goes to plan, I’ll be starting the
marathon after 6-and-a-half hours of racing.
Then the run. Especially the second half of the run. This is
what everything will come down to. Who slows down the least. If I start the run
after 6:30, I need to run 3:20 to finish in 9:50 to give myself a chance of
qualifying. I think 3:20 is reasonable, although I’ve said that every year… But
if I went out today and raced a 10K, I could do it in 32 or 33 minutes. So
surely I can run a 3:20 Ironman marathon…? A 3:20 marathon means averaging
7:40/mile. If I just go out for a run, 7:40/mile isn’t that fast. But try doing
it in the second half of an Ironman marathon…
2014 top finish times in my age group. Interesting to note the bike/run correlation.
Slower bike = faster run, but it's a tough balance to strike.
2013 top finishers in my age group.
The bike course was slightly different pre-2014, but not much.
The bike course was slightly different pre-2014, but not much.
2012 age group top finishers
Much like the bike, I expect the first 10 miles of the
marathon to feel quite easy. I WILL NOT run any quicker than 7:45/mile for the
first few miles. My heart rate should be in the low 140s. The “slower” I run
the early miles, the faster I’ll finish. Forget about anyone who overtakes me
in the first half of the run: “See you later alligator.” Stick to my plan.
7:40/mile. On the 3-mile drag out of Bolton, I might drop my pace by 10-20
seconds per mile, on the run back down into Bolton I might be running at 7:20/mile
or so. But I plan to average 7:40 per mile for as long as I can, and hopefully
in the final 10K I have enough left to lift the pace and strike for home. At
this point, I can spike my heart rate right up. There’s nothing left to save
myself for. Leave it all out there. This is what it comes down to. If I’d been
racing with my head up to this point, now it’ll be guts and heart and soul and
whatever else I have. If I have a sniff of qualifying, that will surely give me
a kick.
I plan to power-walk the steep sections: there’s one very
steep section after 6 miles, just before joining the lapped section of the run.
I know from experience, power-walking this is almost as quick as running it,
but it’s a break, the legs recover, the heart rate falls, and it helps in the
grand scheme of things. Similarly, running out of Bolton town centre, there’s a
steep hill. I’ll go up it 3 times. I’ll power-walk it. Maybe it’ll only be a
minute each time, but it will be a break. Mentally, something to look forward
to. Something to help my overall run time, let the legs recover a fraction,
lower the heart rate a little.
I won’t carry a bottle of water on the run, and so I won’t
be sipping every 5 minutes. The stomach doesn’t process constant sipping well.
And the bottle is a pain to carry. I’ll pass an aid station every 25 minutes or
so. One gel with water every 25 minutes. That’ll do. I’ve done this in
training. It works. I’ve done a 17 mile run off a 3:30 bike in training, and
this run started off at 7:40/mile and felt great, and dropped down to
7:10/mile. It was no problem. I take confidence from this. I’ll have a few
people supporting as well in Bolton. This makes so much difference, especially
in the depths of the run.
I’ll hopefully cross the line and more than anything, I hope
I can say, “That was as good as it could have been.” If I can say this, and I
don’t qualify, then I can live with that (I hope!) I can only do my best, I can't control what other people do. But I believe that if I can
say this, I’ll qualify. Because of the rolling start, I’m not sure if the live
athlete tracker will show positions in real time (I’m number 801 for anyone who
wants to track me). I’m not sure if I’ll know what position in my age group I
am in when I’m out on the course, or when I finish, nothing will be sure.
I’ll have to go into the athletes’ village, get my phone and
have a look. I assume that people looking to qualify for Kona will be at the
front of the line at the swim start, and will all be starting within a minute
or two of each other. So hopefully after finishing, things will shake out
pretty quickly on the online live results system, and I’ll find out. Hopefully
I’ll be in the top 3. If not, I’ll take 4th. If I’m 5th, or 6th, 7th, 8th, or 9th,
I’ll have a sleepless night and I’ll have to go to the awards ceremony the next
day and put myself through the qualification roll-down nightmare. I really
don’t want to have to do this.
That’s it. I believe I can do all of the above. I hope it
all goes to plan. Of course, I might do all of the above, finish in 9:40 or
9:50, and it might only be good enough for 19th, or 30th. I don’t know. I might
finish in 10:25 and this might be good enough. I might get lucky at the
roll-down. It’s getting tougher and tougher to qualify. As more Ironman races
are added to the global calendar, each race receives fewer slots. In 2011,
there would have been 6 or 7 slots for my age group. I heard that at the recent
Ironman France, there were 4 qualifying slots in my age group. Just 4. And,
incredibly, the final slot rolled down to 22nd place! If you are not there, at
the awards ceremony, on the day, you can’t get the slot. I’m sure there were
many horribly gutted triathletes who found out they “could have, would have,
should have”, and I’m sure the guy in 22nd place could not believe it.
The official Ironman rules and regulations regarding
qualification are here, numbers 2, 3 and 4 in particular:
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