Tuesday, July 14, 2015

Post 89 - Ironman UK strategising

I went to work on Monday, and decided I was better off taking the rest of this week off. I’d originally planned to take Thursday and Friday of this week off (and Monday after the race), but I think it’s better to have most of this week off. It’s all about maximising my chances of success and minimising my chances of things going wrong. I don’t know who might be ill on the train or what germs might be floating around, and there’s still quite a bit of it in the office. I can’t risk anything in the lead-up to what is probably the biggest day of my life.

I’m still getting up at the normal time, there’s no point lying in bed until 10 or 11am all week, and then not being tire in the evenings and unable to get to sleep at 9pm in Bolton. Then the alarm will go off at 3am before the race, and I’ll only have had 2 hours of bad sleep on which to race an Ironman. I got up at 6:20am today (very early for a non-work day), I’ll go to bed at 9:30pm. I’ll try to get up a bit earlier each morning this week, and go to bed a bit earlier each evening, so that I am adjusted to very early nights and early rises before I get to Bolton. So, I’ve got a bit of free time this week as I’m not in work…

I’ve spent a bit (OK, a lot) of time thinking about what it might take to qualify for the Kona Hawaii Ironman world championships at Ironman UK. I’ve got experience of the event (this will be my 4th trip to Bolton, and I’ve also done Ironman Wales twice). It’s impossible to predict exactly, but I reckon there will be 5 qualifying slots in my age group. To guarantee qualification, I’d like to finish in the top 4. Slots may roll down, but there’s no guarantee of this. 

I’d like to know immediately after the race if I’ve done it or not, I don’t want a horrible night and morning going to the awards ceremony to face the agony of a roll-down. Been there, done that, missed out, don’t want to do it again… I finished 5th at Ironman Wales 2013, thought there would be 5 slots, there were only 4, nothing rolled down… 

To be really happy with the Ironman UK this year, I’d like to be in the top 3 in my age group, which would mean a podium finish and a prize. Finishing in such a position would put me around the top 20 overall. Assuming the weather is reasonable, and assuming I actually get to the start line in good shape (healthy, no injuries), and based on finishing times from previous years, I think (although this could be completely wrong) that an overall finishing time of around 9:40 will guarantee a Kona slot for me. Under 9:50 would have a chance, under 10 hours would have a smaller chance, and anything over 10 hours would only be left with a tiny, tiny chance. 


It's Tuesday today. Race day (Sunday) doesn't look great at the minute.
But it was the same last year - rain forecast, and it turned out nice... 

Ironman UK always had a mass in-water start. So it was always a proper “race” where everyone started at the same time. This year, it’s a rolling land-based start. We will line up on land, with faster swimmers at the front of the line. I imagine there might be a bit of argy-bargy when lining up, and I’ll need to be ready in good time to get to the front of the line. Then at 6am, the marshals will release a few athletes every second in a continuous stream, until everyone is in the water. They plan to have everyone swimming within 10-15 minutes, although I have my doubts about this. The pros will get to start in the water, before the masses. I have no doubt that the faster swimmers will be swimming over the top of the slower swimmers on the second lap of the swim, which won’t be fun for anyone. 

I would question the rolling start – the Bolton swim is fine for a mass in-water start: there is space for a big, wide start, there is lots of space, with a long, long swim of maybe 800m to the first turn buoy, by which time the field has already strung out. I don’t really see any benefit of a rolling land-based start. Plus, we won’t get a chance to warm up in the water either, and a lot of people (myself included) like to take their time to get into the water and get used to it. It’ll be a bit of a shock this year – boom, straight into it. It is what it is though.

I expect to swim under an hour. In 2011 at Bolton I swam 57 minutes. In 2013 I did 55 minutes, but I heard the swim was a little short. In 2014 I swam 61 minutes with a body gone haywire after being in hospital for the leg infections. Ideally I’d like to get through the swim and first transition in under an hour, but I’d settle for a 57 minute swim.

And then the bike. You can’t make your day on the bike, but you can very easily break it by going too hard. You only find out halfway through the marathon, when you start losing 10 seconds per mile, then 20, then 40, then a minute, then two minutes. But how hard is too hard on the bike? What feels fine/OK/not bad might still be too hard… With experience and learning, I think I’m better placed to answer that question now. In previous Ironman bikes, I’ve averaged just over 150bpm heart rate, with multiple spikes into the red zone of over 170bpm. With hindsight, this is too high. Actually, with hindsight, this is absolutely ludicrous. 

No wonder my Ironman runs have been poor. And no wonder my body didn’t process food and drink properly. It simply can’t, at such heart rates, when the muscles’ demands for oxygen is such that blood is diverted from the digestive system. This means you can continue to fuel your muscles, but you can’t digest anything. That’s fine for an hour, or two or three or maybe even four, but not for a full Ironman…

In 2013 I biked 5:30, following a 4:14 100-mile time trial a couple of months previously. In 2014, I did the same 100-mile time trial in identical conditions in 3:59. So I expected to bike something like 5:15 or 5:20 at the Ironman last year. In the end, I biked 5:39 shortly after being in hospital with leg infections. I didn’t get to do the 100-mile time trial this year, but I would like to think that I’m no less fit than I was last year. So this means that a bike of 5:15-5:20 would be on the cards again (assuming conditions are reasonable), with an average heart rate of 150+. 

However, I want my average heart rate on the bike this year to be 145 or lower, but I don’t know how much time this will cost me on the bike. I’m hoping for around 5:30. But more than the time, I’m hoping to be able to have the discipline to maintain a sensible heart rate, to watch people overtake me on the bike (especially in the early stages), and be confident enough to say “see you later, on the run…” I’m not going to spike anything. Inevitably, going up some of the steep climbs on the course, you have to work a bit harder. But I don’t intend to let my heart rate go over 160 at any point. This may mean going slowly up the hills. But if anyone overtakes me, I’ll (hopefully) see them later on the run.

I’ve also got a power meter which I’ll use to maintain a constant output. No spiking, no surging, just a consistent ride between 210-240 watts, based on training numbers and functional threshold power testing. Nice and steady. It will feel unnaturally easy for the first half of the bike, I’ll basically be riding like a tourist, but it’s all about having the discipline to hold back and hold back, trusting in the science and numbers, and knowing that I will be setting myself up for a good run. You don’t necessarily “race” an Ironman, you “pace” an Ironman. I was in 32-minute 10K shape earlier this year, so it’s not like I’m a bad runner. It’s more like I’ve biked too hard in previous Ironmans to run well off the bike.

Keeping everything nice and controlled on the bike will mean I process food and drink better. I’ll make sure to drink water with any gel I take, which will dilute it and make it less “pukey”. The same for any food I take: I’ll wash it down with water. I’ll save the electrolyte and energy drinks for times on the bike when I’m not eating. Sickly gels and food + sickly drinks = sick! Rather than drink sips every 5 minutes, I’ll take slightly bigger drinks, slightly less frequently. The stomach processes liquid better like this (so I’ve read). Hopefully I’ll have no crashes, flat tyres, mechanical issues, and all of the strategising, discipline and riding-with-blinkers-on-ignoring-everyone-else will set me up for a good run. 

It’s a very hilly, twisty, technical, stop-start course with poor road surfaces. Any rain or wind will make it a bit dangerous and I’ll have to ride with care, so the conditions will play a big part. A 5:30 bike would mean an average speed of 20.4mph. A 5:25 bike would mean 20.7mph, and a 5:20 bike would mean 21mph. We’ll see. If it all goes to plan, I’ll be starting the marathon after 6-and-a-half hours of racing.

Then the run. Especially the second half of the run. This is what everything will come down to. Who slows down the least. If I start the run after 6:30, I need to run 3:20 to finish in 9:50 to give myself a chance of qualifying. I think 3:20 is reasonable, although I’ve said that every year… But if I went out today and raced a 10K, I could do it in 32 or 33 minutes. So surely I can run a 3:20 Ironman marathon…? A 3:20 marathon means averaging 7:40/mile. If I just go out for a run, 7:40/mile isn’t that fast. But try doing it in the second half of an Ironman marathon…

2014 top finish times in my age group. Interesting to note the bike/run correlation.
Slower bike = faster run, but it's a tough balance to strike.


2013 top finishers in my age group.
The bike course was slightly different pre-2014, but not much.


2012 age group top finishers 


Much like the bike, I expect the first 10 miles of the marathon to feel quite easy. I WILL NOT run any quicker than 7:45/mile for the first few miles. My heart rate should be in the low 140s. The “slower” I run the early miles, the faster I’ll finish. Forget about anyone who overtakes me in the first half of the run: “See you later alligator.” Stick to my plan. 7:40/mile. On the 3-mile drag out of Bolton, I might drop my pace by 10-20 seconds per mile, on the run back down into Bolton I might be running at 7:20/mile or so. But I plan to average 7:40 per mile for as long as I can, and hopefully in the final 10K I have enough left to lift the pace and strike for home. At this point, I can spike my heart rate right up. There’s nothing left to save myself for. Leave it all out there. This is what it comes down to. If I’d been racing with my head up to this point, now it’ll be guts and heart and soul and whatever else I have. If I have a sniff of qualifying, that will surely give me a kick. 

I plan to power-walk the steep sections: there’s one very steep section after 6 miles, just before joining the lapped section of the run. I know from experience, power-walking this is almost as quick as running it, but it’s a break, the legs recover, the heart rate falls, and it helps in the grand scheme of things. Similarly, running out of Bolton town centre, there’s a steep hill. I’ll go up it 3 times. I’ll power-walk it. Maybe it’ll only be a minute each time, but it will be a break. Mentally, something to look forward to. Something to help my overall run time, let the legs recover a fraction, lower the heart rate a little.

I won’t carry a bottle of water on the run, and so I won’t be sipping every 5 minutes. The stomach doesn’t process constant sipping well. And the bottle is a pain to carry. I’ll pass an aid station every 25 minutes or so. One gel with water every 25 minutes. That’ll do. I’ve done this in training. It works. I’ve done a 17 mile run off a 3:30 bike in training, and this run started off at 7:40/mile and felt great, and dropped down to 7:10/mile. It was no problem. I take confidence from this. I’ll have a few people supporting as well in Bolton. This makes so much difference, especially in the depths of the run.

I’ll hopefully cross the line and more than anything, I hope I can say, “That was as good as it could have been.” If I can say this, and I don’t qualify, then I can live with that (I hope!) I can only do my best, I can't control what other people do. But I believe that if I can say this, I’ll qualify. Because of the rolling start, I’m not sure if the live athlete tracker will show positions in real time (I’m number 801 for anyone who wants to track me). I’m not sure if I’ll know what position in my age group I am in when I’m out on the course, or when I finish, nothing will be sure. 

I’ll have to go into the athletes’ village, get my phone and have a look. I assume that people looking to qualify for Kona will be at the front of the line at the swim start, and will all be starting within a minute or two of each other. So hopefully after finishing, things will shake out pretty quickly on the online live results system, and I’ll find out. Hopefully I’ll be in the top 3. If not, I’ll take 4th. If I’m 5th, or 6th, 7th, 8th, or 9th, I’ll have a sleepless night and I’ll have to go to the awards ceremony the next day and put myself through the qualification roll-down nightmare. I really don’t want to have to do this. 

That’s it. I believe I can do all of the above. I hope it all goes to plan. Of course, I might do all of the above, finish in 9:40 or 9:50, and it might only be good enough for 19th, or 30th. I don’t know. I might finish in 10:25 and this might be good enough. I might get lucky at the roll-down. It’s getting tougher and tougher to qualify. As more Ironman races are added to the global calendar, each race receives fewer slots. In 2011, there would have been 6 or 7 slots for my age group. I heard that at the recent Ironman France, there were 4 qualifying slots in my age group. Just 4. And, incredibly, the final slot rolled down to 22nd place! If you are not there, at the awards ceremony, on the day, you can’t get the slot. I’m sure there were many horribly gutted triathletes who found out they “could have, would have, should have”, and I’m sure the guy in 22nd place could not believe it.

The official Ironman rules and regulations regarding qualification are here, numbers 2, 3 and 4 in particular:

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